Forecasting / Decision systems / 001
Envision positive futures. Plan to achieve them. Prepare to avoid negative ones.
I run structured forecasting sessions that take an executive team ten years into the future, then work backwards to what should be decided now, in two years, and in five. Both the threats and the opportunities.
Start a conversationNOW
DECIDE
2 YEARS
CAPABILITY MOVES
5 YEARS
EARLY COMMITMENTS
10 YEARS
CLASS OF FUTURES
Work backwards / act forwards
Now / Two years / Five years / Ten years
01 / Orientation
A rising decision horizon begins with Now and Decide at the bottom left, then moves through 2 Years and Prepare, 5 Years and Position, and ends with 10 Years and Future scenario at the upper right.
NOW
Decide
2 YEARS
Prepare
5 YEARS
Position
10 YEARS
Future scenario
A SWOT tells you where you are. This tells you where you are going.
Most strategic planning assesses the present and calls it foresight. A SWOT analysis is a current read of strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats. Useful, and it stops at today’s edge.
Futures to Action starts ten years out. It forecasts across social, political, economic, military and technical trends, gets specific about the futures those trends produce, and then works backwards to the decisions available now.
It is not about predicting an exact future. It is about a class of futures, described in enough detail that you can act on it.
02 / Ways to work
Three ways to work
Futures to Action
Threat and opportunity forecasting. A facilitated session that takes your leadership team ten years out and returns with actions, dates and indicators. Delivered as Fault Line for the threats and Frontier for the opportunities.
02Technology Retained Advisory
An informed independent voice when a technology decision moves, with context carried across conversations and preparation before the room meets.
03Executive Education
Board sessions, executive briefings, keynotes and workshops. Same material, different rooms.
03 / The room
Built for consequential decisions
Boards, audit committees and risk committees. CEOs and executive teams. CIOs and security leaders. Private equity firms and their portfolio companies. Startups that need to understand how the buyers inside a large enterprise actually decide.
04 / Insights
Signals, interpreted
I write about forecasting, emerging technology risk, and what executives get wrong about the future.
05 / The present
The question is what you should be doing now.
Contact / 01
Start a conversation
Tell me what you are working on and I will tell you whether I can help.