Forecasting / Decision systems / 001
Ten years out, and what to do about it now.
I run structured forecasting sessions that take an executive team ten years into the future, then work backwards to what should be decided now, in four years, and in eight. Both the threats and the opportunities.
Start a conversation10 YEARS
CLASS OF FUTURES
8 YEARS
EARLY COMMITMENTS
4 YEARS
CAPABILITY MOVES
NOW
DECIDE
Work backwards / act forwards
Ten years / Eight years / Four years / Now
01 / Orientation
10 YEARS
Future scenario
8 YEARS
Position
4 YEARS
Prepare
NOW
Decide
A SWOT tells you where you are. This tells you where you are going.
Most strategic planning assesses the present and calls it foresight. A SWOT analysis is a current read of strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats. Useful, and it stops at today’s edge.
Futures to Action starts ten years out. It forecasts across social, political, economic, military and technical trends, gets specific about the futures those trends produce, and then works backwards to the decisions available now.
It is not about predicting an exact future. It is about a class of futures, described in enough detail that you can act on it.
02 / Ways to work
Three ways to work
Futures to Action
Threat and opportunity forecasting. A facilitated session that takes your leadership team ten years out and returns with actions, dates and indicators. Delivered as Fault Line for the threats and Frontier for the opportunities.
02Technology Retained Advisory
An informed independent voice when a technology decision moves, with context carried across conversations and preparation before the room meets.
03Executive Education
Board sessions, executive briefings, keynotes and workshops. Same material, different rooms.
03 / The room
Built for consequential decisions
Boards, audit committees and risk committees. CEOs and executive teams. CIOs and security leaders. Private equity firms and their portfolio companies. Startups that need to understand how the buyers inside a large enterprise actually decide.
04 / Insights
Signals, interpreted
I write about forecasting, emerging technology risk, and what executives get wrong about the future.
05 / The present
The question is what you should be doing now.
Contact / 01
Start a conversation
Tell me what you are working on and I will tell you whether I can help.